The media is already setting John Edwards up for a defeat on this weekend if the Register does not endorse him. I think that's a bunch of hogwash. The odds of that paper endorsing John Edwards two times in a row are extremely low, especially when most of its stories about him this year (especially David Yepsen's) have been less than flattering.
They endorsed him the last time because he was "fresh"...advantage Barack Obama.
They endorsed him the last time because he was an "underdog" with a lot of goodwill in the state...advantage Joe Biden.
They endorsed him the last time because even though he was low in the polls, they said he was "capable"...advantage Bill Richardson.
They also endorsed him last time because he had a "great message"...still advantage John Edwards.
If I had to guess who the DesMoines Register will endorse, based on the fact that the paper's most visible employee (Yepsen) seems to hate John Edwards' guts this year, and the other Register reporter who was on C-Span last night tried to avoid mention of John Edwards' name unless someone forced it out of him, I'd have to say that the Register will either choose one of these people, from greatest to least chance:
- Joe Biden
- Barack Obama
- Bill Richardson
If the Register wants to really make a mark, it'll probably choose Barack Obama, since he has a chance of winning Iowa. Last time it chose Edwards, and he almost won. That's the main thing that works against Biden and Richardson (the Register not wanting to finish second again), but somehow it just seems like they will back Joe Biden.
I'd say that Edwards and Clinton have as little chance of receiving the endorsement as Kucinich and Gravel do. Dodd is a good guy, but he can't break "Senator" mode long enough to look like a Presidential candidate.
So, who do you think the Register will endorse?